La predicción de la quiebra empresarial: Una revisión del modelo de Edward Altman

Edvin Méndez

doi:10.36314/cunori.v7i1.210

Authors

Edvin Méndez Universidad de San Carlos de Guatemala https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0375-1275

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.36314/cunori.v7i1.210

Keywords:

modelos matemáticos, Edward Altman, predicción de quiebra, finanzas empresariales, ciencias económicas

Abstract

PROBLEM: The prediction of corporate bankruptcy is a crucial issue for companies since it allows taking preventive measures to avoid financial insolvency and its negative consequences. To determine the possibility of bankruptcy in companies, different financial models can be used to analyze the key variables that influence the company's performance. OBJECTIVE: to analyze Edward Altman model to predict the bankruptcy of companies to make strategic decisions to avoid possible problems that could jeopardize the continuity of the organization. METHOD: it was carried out with a quantitative research approach, deductive method, and explanatory scope. The selection of the sample was made in a non-probabilistic way within an infinite universe, using convenience sampling. A sample of 10 companies operating in the municipality of Guatemala was selected. RESULTS: After analyzing companies and performing a qualitative validation, it was determined that the Altman model has a 100% accuracy in predicting bankruptcies in companies developing projects in Guatemala. CONCLUSION: Edward Altman's bankruptcy prediction model describes a trend in the company's financial situation, detecting when a company is in a good or bad financial situation. Consequently, it is beneficial to use these methodologies to monitor a company's financial performance on an ongoing and early basis.

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Author Biography

Edvin Méndez, Universidad de San Carlos de Guatemala

Ingeniero Civil graduado de la Universidad de San Carlos de Guatemala. Maestría en Formulación y Evaluación de proyectos; Maestría en Administración Financiera; Maestría en Estructuras; Especialización en Investigación Científica y estudiante del Doctorado de Ciencias Económicas de la Universidad de San Carlos de Guatemala.

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