Comportamiento en tasas posteriores a las crisis 2008 y 2020 en Guatemala

Abstract

OBJECTIVE: to evaluate the current crisis due to the change in the financial conditions of Guatemala, it is necessary to forecast the behavior of the financial markets, exchange rate, interest rates (assets, liabilities and leader), in order to adequately forecast; and thus, have an idea of ​​what actions to take, derived from the latest financial crisis exposed in the world. METHOD: analysis of retrospective data through the multiple linear regression model of the variables exchange rate, leading rate, active and passive interest rate with data obtained from the Banco de Guatemala from the year 2005 to the year 2020. RESULTS: it was possible to determine that during the economic shock in the crisis of the year 2008 compared to the crisis of the year 2020 they tend to be different; therefore, the crisis in 2008 cannot be related, being this economic crisis due to financial factors caused by the same people, compared to the crisis of 2020; which has been a natural phenomenon, of a medical nature, where these factors could not be previously predicted. CONCLUSION: it is not possible to compare the behavior of the economic crisis of 2008 with the economic crisis of 2020; however, in the least squares model with an equation of the linear regression model performed, there are some factors that are similar (ups and downs in the exchange rate, active interest rates, passive interest rate and leading interest rate), but it cannot be properly diagnosed because these securities are intervened by the central bank, due to its planning and response to the different crises.